Why Thailand’s Democratic Trajectory Hinges on 8 February

By Yossaphol Songsri

Unprecedented in Thailand’s political history, the country’s upcoming general election on 8 February is being held on the same day as a referendum to decide the fate of its core governing constitution.

On the day, besides electing MPs and political parties to represent their constituencies for another 4 years – voters will further partake in a referendum to choose between ‘Yes,’ ‘No,’ or ‘No opinion’ – in response to the ballot’s sole question: ‘Do you approve that there should be a new constitution?’

With external pressures already fueling widespread nationalist zest, coupled with latest economic downturns marked by lacklustre GDP growth, alongside mounting household and public debts – this upcoming “election-referendum” combo presents a critical juncture that will determine whether Thailand’s politics could finally break free from decades-long ‘path dependence’’ of overarching fragility underscoring the nation’s fundamental checks and balances.

Ratified in 2017, the current constitution is now Thailand’s 20th. It was drafted during a democratic interregnum under the military junta’s control, with charters featuring provisions that prolong the junta and its appointees’ power to influence the course of Thai politics through deliberate exclusion of voters from electing senators and impeaching key ‘independent’ constitutional entities.

Thailand’s Constitutional Court judges have removed 2 Prime Ministers – Srettha Thavisin and Paetongtarn Shinawatra – from power within the last 18 months alone, on the grounds of ‘ethics violation’ – which the constitution itself has left to open-ended and subjective interpretation.

Meanwhile, despite widespread outcries after the total collapse of the State Audit Office’s new office building during the March 2025 earthquake – the current constitution had previously removed any mechanism for the public to be able to impeach through petition. Instead, the powers to appoint and remove key personnel for these ‘constitutional’ entities rest in the hands of Thailand’s non-partisan Senate.

Yet, thanks to the 2017 Constitution, the senators themselves were not popularly voted in by Thailand’s electorates – but instead, indirectly chosen among the candidate pools through what has been dubbed as ‘the most complicated election in the world’.

The 2017 Constitution further mandated compliance with the junta-drafted ‘20-year National Strategy (2018-2037)’ across the work of government agencies and thus Thailand’s bureaucrats by and large.

Such masterplans ensure that systematic reforms are nearly impossible, as they also determine the direction of policies and manifestos used by contesting parties and politicians – failure to abide by which can be turned into basis for removals from office.

In a nutshell, this referendum presents an opportunity to resolve Thailand’s fundamental political legitimacy and the basic relationship between its executive, legislative and judicial branches.

No matter how the general election itself goes – the country’s democratic trajectory and long-term potential in fact depend on the outcome of this exact referendum.

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